BRIC
Update 2010: New Book. Investing in BRIC Countries: Evaluating Risk and Governance in Brazil, Russia, India and China by Svetlana Borodina and Oleg Shvyrkov HD2741.I62 2010
Update: Back when this acronym first surfaced to represent the new global economic powers of Brazil, Russia, India and China, the Johnston staff produced this guide to help those interested in the subject. Now, four years later, the four nations gathered in Yekaterinburg for their first summit and the subject is again in the news. For example see: “BRIC but no Bloc,”
The Economist, June 16, 2009 and “Brazil is the Odd BRIC Out,” Eric Margolis,
Newsweek, June 22, 2009.
Update: The research note below was produced in 2005. In early 2008, the Conference Board of Canada issued a report that will be useful for Canadian researchers. It is available to members of the Western community. See: The Rise of the BRICs: What Does It Mean for Canada?
"Canada is missing out on the enormous opportunities offered by the BRIC countries—Brazil, Russia, India and China—the Conference Board argues ... Canada's share of trade and investment with the BRICs is small and linkages with these countries—especially China and India, or "Chindia"—need to be developed." There is a useful bibliography on p.48.
" BRIC" in the business world is an acronym that usually refers to the countries
Brazil,
Russia,
India and
China. Although the term "BRIC" is increasingly bandied about, searching for information about it can be difficult since the same letters often also refer to companies or organizations and one has to wade through a lot of
bric-a-brac to find material that is directly relevant to the subject of these powerful emerging markets. Our purpose here is to direct you quickly to the pertinent material.
Although the first reference to "BRIC" we have located was in the Spring of 2003, it is clear that the catalyst for analyses and articles is the paper published by Goldman Sachs in the Fall of 2003. The bibliographic details are provided here and a copy is available in the Business Library: "Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050," Dominic Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman. Global Economics Paper No: 99, Oct. 1, 2003 (on this date (Sept. 19, 2005) the paper is still provided on the Goldman Sach's site -
http://www.gs.com ).
The basic assertion made in the report is that "Over the next 50 years, Brazil, Russia, India and China - the BRIC economies- could become a much larger force in the world economy" and that the list of the largest 10 countries might look much different in 2050. The report covers about 25 pages and many of the major points made in the report are found summarized on the web. It is worth noting here one qualifying remark that is often overlooked: "The key assumption underlying our projections is that the BRICs maintain policies and develop institutions that are supportive of growth. Each of the BRICs faces significant challenges in keeping development on track. This means that there is a good chance that our projections are not met, either through bad policy or bad luck. But if the BRICs come anywhere close to meeting the projections set out here, the implications for the pattern of growth and economic activity could be large."(p.2)
Naturally there has been a great deal of excitement over the report in those countries that are viewed as the potential new economic powers and many articles can be found by using either
Factiva or
Lexis/Nexis. Below we have selected some that we perceive as being particularly useful and we have presented them in chronological order - from oldest to newest - so the reaction can be traced as it developed. Some Canadian publications are also provided in order to gauge the Canadian interest. One of the first responses to the report appeared in the
Financial Post.
The Paper
"Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050," Dominic Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman.
Global Economics Paper No: 99, Oct. 1, 2003
Some of the key points:
- Over the next 50 years, Brazil, Russia, India and China--the BRICs economies--could become a much larger force in the world economy. Using the latest demographic projections and a model of capital accumulation and productivity growth, we map out GDP growth, income per capita and currency movements in the BRICs economies until 2050.The results are startling. If things go right, in less than 40 years, the BRICs economies together could be larger than the G6 in US dollar terms. By 2025 they could account for over half the size of the G6. Currently they are worth less than 15%. Of the current G6, only the US and Japan may be among the six largest economies in US dollar terms in 2050.The shift in GDP relative to the G6 takes place steadily over the period, but is most dramatic in the first 30 years. Growth for the BRICs is likely to slow significantly toward the end of the period, with only India seeing growth rates significantly above 3% by 2050. And individuals in the BRICs are still likely to be poorer on average than individuals in the G6 economies, with the exception of Russia. China's per capita income could be roughly what the developed economies are now (about US$30,000 per capita).As early as 2009, the annual increase in US dollar spending from the BRICs could be greater than that from the G6 and more than twice as much in dollar terms as it is now. By 2025 the annual increase in US dollar spending from the BRICs could be twice that of the G6, and four times higher by 2050.The relative importance of the BRICs as an engine of new demand growth and spending power may shift more dramatically and quickly than expected. Higher growth in these economies could offset the impact of greying populations and slower growth in the advanced economies.
- As today's advanced economies become a shrinking part of the world economy, the accompanying shifts in spending could provide significant opportunities for global companies. Beng invested in and involved in the right markets--particularly the right emerging markets--may become an increasingly important strategic choice.
Selected Articles
"Get Ready for 'BRIC' Power Bloc: Goldman",Jacqueline Thorpe, October 3, 2003, Financial Post.
"Why the G7 must soon make way for the 'Brics'," By Andrew Balls, Financial Times, October 7, 2003.
"Follow the Yellow BRIC Road", The Economist, October 11, 2003.
"The BRICS Are Coming -- Fast", Business Week, October 27, 2003.
"How Solid are the Brics?: EMERGING MARKETS: Peter Temple takes a look at some immense markets that are expected to become a great deal bigger", Financmes (Lial Tiondon, England), February 7, 2004.
"Rise of the BRICs", Pensions Week, March 8, 2004.
"Four Countries You Must Own; Every Investor Needs a Stake in Brazil, Russia, India, and China", Business Week, December 27, 2004.
"Four Strong Emerging Markets. But How to Play Them?",By Geraldine Fabrikant, The New York Times, February 20, 2005.
"4 Stars to Hitch on to? ; Brazil, Russia, India and China Stand Out", The International Herald Tribune, Geraldine Fabrikant, February 21, 2005.
"Spotting Rising Stars on Investment Horizon ; Brazil, Russia, India and China Shine", Geraldine Fabrikant, The International Herald Tribune, February 22, 2005 Tuesday.
"Go for the Emerging Markets of Russia, India and China, Jessica Bown, Sunday Times (London), February 27, 2005.
"BRIC Countries Are The World Economy's Building Blocks", The Banker, May 1, 2005, May 2005.
" 'High Octane' BRIC Quartet Draws Investor Interest: Potential for Supercharged Growth Seen in Brazil, Russia, India and China," Carolyn Leitch. The Globe and Mail, April 25, 2005, p.B7.